Euro follows rouble's example. Forecast for EURUSD for 21.10.2020
The European Commission’s first issuance of bonds as part of common debt and the capital flow to the European markets support EURUSD bulls. Let’s discuss that and make a trading plan.
Fundamental forecast for euro for today
Money controls the world. Everything seems to be against the euro: the second wave of COVID-19 in Europe, the S&P 500’s retracement, the worsening of the eurozone’s economy and the ECB’s hints at monetary policy softening. Nevertheless, the EURUSD jumps up like a scalded cat. If the reason is the Chinese yuan that has reached its 27-month high against the USD, then why aren’t the Australian and the NZ dollars consolidating? Australia’s and New Zealand’s shares in Chinese exports are higher than the eurozone’s one. As it turns out, it’s carry trade that should be blamed for the euro’s rise. The story that occurred to the Russian rouble is still fresh in our minds: carry trade made it the best Forex performer in 2019. USDRUB’s fall looked paradoxical too. The state of the Russian economy left much to be desired, trade wars slowed down the main partners’ GDP and the Bank of Russia dropped the key rate to stimulate inflation. It’s the latter factor that made non-residents buy out governmental bonds in expectation of a rise in price. A similar story appears to be happening in Europe now. The European Commission made the first issuance of 10-year and 20-year bonds as part of common debt on 20 October. The sale will finance the EU’s coronavirus-relief programs. The issuance volume amounted to €17 billion, and that’s just a beginning. The fund’s total volume is €750 billion. The mass media once presented those bonds as an alternative to treasuries. That was one of the factors in the EURUSD’s summer rally. I think it’s a mere flow of capital from the USA and developing countries to Europe. Buying EM bonds doesn’t seem to be a good idea amid global GDP’s potential slowdown in Q4. Europe’s periphery is another thing. Greek, Italian and Portuguese bonds look tasty. That lowers their spreads, in comparison with German ones, and points to smaller political risks. Hi, Russia-2019!
Yield spreads in European and German bonds
https://preview.redd.it/3p1xf8ol5gu51.jpg?width=560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8743f58ef1a5d2ca226c89acc76bf2234c6edb5c Source: Wall Street Journal. The more the ECB speaks about softening monetary policy, the more actively non-residents buy out European bonds, hoping for a price rise in the future. Obviously, German bonds have no room for growth, but the periphery still offers some earning opportunities. By the way, EURUSD’s 3-month swap spreads became negative in August. That means the Americans can make profit from both a rise in price in EU bonds and hedging. The risk of a Blue Wave in the USA aggravates the situation. Joe Biden’s victory and the Democrats’ takeover of the Congress will unblock $4-5 trillion in fiscal aid. That will increase the volumes of Treasuries issuance and drop their price. Investors need an alternative urgently, and they find it in Europe.
[M] This meme I made describes how I feel right now, why can’t my economy just be normal and just function, very upsetting. [/M] The Russian economy is in freefall, which is quite an unfortunate problem to say the least. After experiencing minor growth for the past two years, the economy has decided to kill itself, which can be quite an issue when unemployment skyrockets to 22%, and the value of the rouble drops faster than Saudi Arabia’s chance of not being stuck in an eternal civil war. Taking experience from the 2008-2009 and the 2014-2017 Russian financial crises, we are well prepared to restore economic order to the country. This must be done quickly, as the longer we stall around, the more our people shall suffer, and the odds of escaping this pit of economic despair shrink. To escape this financial crisis, there are three main fields that need to be addressed extensively to prevent the economy from detonating on itself. The first field being social welfare and the lives of the people within Russia. With unemployment at 22%, the people of Russia will be suffering, and if we are to emerge from this crisis, we need to work with them and ensure their safety and wellbeing to recover faster. The second field is the rouble, and the general state of the economy. The value of the rouble has skyrocketed, and inflation is running rampant, which if this is allowed to continue, will decimate our economy even more, so this must be brought under control as soon as possible. Furthermore, many businesses and factories in the country have slashed employees and have almost gone out of business themself, so drastic action needs to be taken there. Finally, the final field being the roots of the crisis, corruption, and the sanctions on Russia from the west. The roots of the problem need to be pruned so that a disaster like this never happens again. Russia is stuck between a rock and a hard place right now, but this is our trying moment. If we emerge from this disaster, we will come out stronger than ever before, and will become closer as a country, showing that Russia is the only way forward. Through cooperation between the people and the government, we will make it through this crisis. Field One: Welfare One of the key fields of this crisis that needs to be addressed is the welfare of the people. Unemployment is at a record 22%, and this must be addressed before anything else can be done. With this many people unemployed and not able to get jobs, this will cause havoc all across Russia as people will struggle to make ends meet in terms of living their lives. To counteract the immediate issues that this will cause, food, shelter, and other amenities for people need to be secured and guaranteed. First off, guaranteeing food for all people who are unable to afford it or acquire it while being unemployed. In recent years our production of all agricultural goods has skyrocketed due to the introduction of GMOs, so we can provide government “soup kitchens” for the unemployed to come and reliably get food. The government will provide the farmers with money for their crops, and in return the food can be placed into these free places for people to eat, therefore avoiding the concern of people starving. Housing will not be as critical of an issue, as there is state housing available, but it is limited in capacity, so something must still be done. This issue can be solved with the issue of unemployment, which I will elaborate on further. Essentially, new state housing will be built in all places that need housing for the unemployed, and this can provide temporary residences for the people to stay out of the elements when the time comes. As for things like health care and such, these are provided by the government, and due to the recession, funding for them will be raised to account for the inevitable rise in human needs. To place a major dent in the issue of unemployment, much with what the United States did during the 1930s during the Great Depression, we will be taking a leaf out of their book and creating a plethora of new programs. The major program however, will be the program known as Rehabilitation Russia, which will revolve around infrastructure improvements all across Russia, and constructing new buildings as well. This ties into building new state housing, and draws inspiration from the programs from the American New Deal in the 1930s, namely the Works Progress Administration, Civilian Conservation Corps, and the Public Works Administration. All of these programs focused on providing work to unemployed people, and working on infrastructure around the country. This same principle can be applied in Russia, hopefully to the same degree of success. The temporary jobs granted through these programs can provide enough time for the factories that these people were laid off from to be up and running again. With all of this in place, this can grant additional benefit to Russia while also ensuring that these people do not go without jobs. While not everyone will get a job from these programs, it will stem the major flow of unemployment for the meantime, and hopefully grant enough time for the major sources of employment to reopen. Additionally, for those who are unemployed, the current unemployment benefits are nowhere close to being enough to allow a person to survive. Per month currently, each person only gets around 12-80$ of unemployment money, which is insultingly low. In this recession, with a large number of people in unemployment, this number needs to be increased drastically. To aid the people who are unemployed, the minimum amount of money that can be granted per month will be raised to $150 USD, and the maximum will be raised to $960 USD, which depends on the lifestyle of each person. Someone who has a large family will receive the larger benefit, and someone who is alone will be granted the smaller funds. By raising the unemployment benefits for the recession, this will allow for the people of Russia to still be able to actually survive during these uncertain times. The funding needed for this will come from slashing other budgets across the scale, and from loans from the Central Bank of Russia. These loans, of course, will be eventually repaid once the recession is over, but something must be done in the meantime to provide the people with a form of welfare and the means to survive. Field Two: The Economy: The rouble is in freefall, and the economy is about to be hit by a large train of shinkage, which is quite an issue to summarize. The first thing that must be done for the economy will be to stabilize the rouble. To stabilize the rouble, just like in 2014, the Central Bank of Russia will withdraw $5 billion USD to purchase roubles in the Russian economy to work on stabilizing the currency. Due to the large reserves of the Russian Federation, this can easily be accomplished, and should be more than enough towards stabilizing the rouble. This being done will go a long way towards climbing out the recession, as the stabilization of the rouble will bring back confidence in the economy. To help revive the economy, a government bailout program will be the way that the economy is saved. Russia has extensive reserves of foreign currencies (henceforth referred to as forex reserves) that we have been saving for an event like this for sometime, and now is the time to use them. While $5 billion USD from our forex reserves is being spent to prop up the rouble, this will not be enough to stabilize the economy totally. Therefore a bailout program on a massive scale is required, and the estimated total cost of the government program is $200 billion USD. Around $100-150 billion of this can be gained domestically through raising the VAT and other taxes, while also dipping into our forex reserves and slashing the budget of other ministries. The rest of this money, however, will be given as a bailout loan from the IMF, depending on how much they are willing to give us. This government bailout will be critical to prevent the entire country from entering further economic collapse, and will give us a swift rebound. Where the money goes for the bailouts, however, will be very important as the money is limited as to where it will go. Therefore the money will mainly be focused on reopening factories and bringing back old job positions before the recession. Furthermore, money will also be needed to bailout other important companies that went under in the recession, so focusing on other businesses other than manufacturing is also important, as more places other than that went under. Small businesses in particular are quite important as large numbers of them went under during the crisis, so further bailouts for them are needed. The money will be divided as follows, $100 billion towards manufacturing bailouts as this sector of the economy was the hardest hit from the recession, $50 billion for small businesses, as they were also hit particularly hard, and $50 billion for other sectors of the economy that were hit, but not as hard as the previously mentioned ones. Through these targeted bailouts and financial measures, this should stem the flow from the recession. These measures emanate those from both the 2008-2009 and the 2014-2017 financial crises, and things that worked then will work now. Acquiring the funding for the bailouts domestically, however, will be difficult, and drastic measures must be taken to ensure this. The value added tax in Russia in particular will be raised from 20% up to 27% for the foreseeable future until the financial crisis has passed, and then past then it will be restored to the normal levels. In particular, the taxes on natural resource extracting will be raised up 2% from whichever level it was previously (this is done because the rates fluctuate for each resource and I don’t want to spend 3 hours writing down each and every one). Through both of these specific taxes being raised, the money from this will be enough to enable the bailout measure to be mostly be funded domestically, rather than through IMF loans. The raising of these taxes is only a temporary measure, and once the recession is over, they will go back to their standard levels so as not to make our citizens' lives even more difficult. Field Three: The Roots of the Crisis Despite having extensive measures to stop a crisis like this from even happening, they were not enough to escape the roots of the problems that led to this happening. Corruption and sanctions from the EU were the drivers of this entire recession, and something must be done to combat each and every one of them. No more measures to just delay the inevitable, these issues all right here stop this year, or the next year, Russia will no longer play victim towards the whims of the roots. Action will be taken, and these issues will cease to exist. Corruption is something that Vladimir Putin has already touched upon at an earlier time, but this time more must be done. Anti-corruption courts were already empowered, and corruption in various different sectors of the government was dealt with to remove the epidemic of bribery that existed within the country. However, one part of corruption that has not been dealt with was tax fraud and tax evasion, which now more than ever is something that needs to be clamped down on. Following the model of the United State’s Internal Revenue Service (IRS), we can mimic their actions to catch those who attempt to deprive the government of their taxes. Russia has a right rate of tax evasion and tax fraud, and by checking over reports sent by their employers and other third parties, and comparing it to their taxes, we can catch people who commit tax fraud. This is an issue that Vladmir Putin feels strongly about, so he will be personally expecting results from this now, and in the future. By attacking those who commit tax fraud and tax evasion, we can also provide the government with more revenue that is sorely needed at this time. Sanctions from the EU, however, have already been lifted significantly, and this will serve as the rallying cause for our economy. With the aid of European trade coming in, this can serve to assist our economy in climbing out of the recession. While this is not agreeable for our policy, this is something that must be done to ensure the economy does not suffer anymore than it has to. In the future, once the recession is over however, Russia will return to its former strength and prosper once again. Government interventions into the recession that are swift and precise can help bring about an end to this recession sooner and better. Following methods that worked during the last recessions and financial crises, Russia can escape this calamity stronger than before.
Regarding Russia and Saudi Arabia. The break even price isn't the whole story. For Russia and Saudi Arabia the cost of extraction alone is low (~$3-4 ) but the problem is the price needed to balance their budgets and maintain a pegged currency. Saudi Arabia:- Currency pegged at 3.75 Riyal / USD. As exports and other inflows drop, the current account balance turns negative, forex reserves (~$500 billion) have to be spent (USD sold) in order to support this rate.- Oil makes up about 85% of the budget revenue. The budget balances at around $80 per barrel, this means debt has to be issued or sovereign wealth fund/reserve assets sold. (~$600-700 billion) Russia:- Russian rouble is free float, so as exports drop, so do imports as they become too expensive. This is opposite of Saudi Case where export flows decrease but imports remain attractive due to currency peg. Therefore forex reserves do not have to be spent (~$550 billion). - Oil and gas make up about 40% of the budget revenue. The Russian Federal budget is based on 2800 roubles/barrel and the rouble is currently trading at 75 to the dollar, to balance at $30 per barrel the currency would have to depreciate to around 90, there are a few reasons it hasn't done so already (OFZ, other inflows) There is a sovereign wealth fund that can be tapped into as well (~$100 billion). The biggest difference is Saudi Arabia has a lot more spare capacity than Russia. The Saudis could pump out an additional 1-2 million barrels, while Russia can do maybe 0.3-0.5. They can inflict more pain, but not sure if they can weather the storm. All in all, both have little to gain especially in the current economic climate. In the long term I think America will come out as the winner here with a more consolidated, restructured industry.
[DIPLOMACY] Turkey offers Central Asia - particularly our Turkic brethren - a post Russia lifeline. Pledges funds, hardware, operations
To our friends. We note with chagrin that Russia has reneged on its commitments to you in totem. Whilst none of us should be surprised at that, given what else we have witnessed, we should not think of it as only a loss. It can also be seen as a great opportunity for us all. Russia has left you post-Soviet collapse, in poverty, and a state of semi-Soviet dependency on a country which has consistently demonstrated a commitment to maintaining oligarchy, corruption, and widespread poverty. This being the case, Turkey proposes to channel NATOBUX into Central Asia like never before, to ensure not only your survival of this apocalypse, but all of our triumph, over it. Our offeribgs are as follows:
Post-Soviet military rebuild. From small arms to jet fighters, and everything in between, Turkey offers discounted rates and accelerated production, for you to cut the cord on your dependency on Russia to supply your aged equipment with spares. The replacements are NATO-interoperable, modern, affordable, and effective. We can also produce Warsaw pact ammunition, and other spares, excepting the very latest Russian kit, which you don't have, lol.
Turkish support for post-rouble hydrocarbons business. Central Asia, to be free of its Soviet overlord, should switch to dealing in hydrocarbons with other currency posthaste. Turkey's lira cannot hope to support the whole of Central Asia, regrettably, so you must switch to the Yuan, the Rupee, the Rial, or the Euro, depending on your primary export destination. We recommend pegging your currency if necessary to support your transition, then following Turkey's monetary policy framework, once ForEx supplies are plentiful enough to allow your currencies to appreciate.
Turkish operational support for military deployment, and training. Turkish Air-Ground operations in counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics, border security, minority suppression, and in full conflict, is offered. We can station troops to replace absent Russian ones, provide officer training, and help with integrating new aircraft, vehicles, and equipment including C4ISR. Turkey's military is substantially larger than the rest of Central Asia put together, so we are able to deliver on this promise. As a guide, Turkey offers a preliminary force of the following Air-Ground-Task-Force, available in multiples:
12 x Fighter Jet
6 x Attack Helicopter
6 x Heavy helicopter
12 x Medium Utility helicopter
12 x Light recon helicopter
1 x battalion Motorised Infantry (60 vehicles)
1 x Armoured Company (14 tanks)
1 x Recon Company (12 vehicles)
1 x Engineer Company (20 vehicles)
1 x Air defence company (12 x PMSHORAD)
1 x Support Company
Total: 1800 soldiers
Note: we will be begging NATO for the costs associated with these deployments
Russia's major state banks see forex outflow amid sanctions threats
This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 71%. (I'm a bot)
Some of their smaller rivals and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Russia saw inflows to their FX deposits in the same period. "Moderate funding outflows from larger state banks were presumably driven by concerns over potential new sanctions," Fitch ratings said in a note, referring to August flows. Concerns about an extension of U.S. sanctions against Moscow that could possibly target Russian state banks and holdings of Russian government bonds plagued markets in August and sent the rouble to its lowest levels since 2016. The amount of foreign currency that retail clients held in Sberbank, Russia's No. 1 lender, declined by $1.1 billion in August to $33 billion, while the bank's corporate FX deposits shrank by $2.2 billion to $55 billion. The data on flows at Russia's five biggest lenders and subsidiaries of major foreign banks was collated by Reuters. Foreign currency deposits at Raiffeisen Bank in Russia grew to $1.88 billion from $1.37 billion in August, while FX deposits at Rosbank, a subsidiary of Societe Generale, rose to $1.95 billion from $1.70 billion.
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I am a bot trying to encourage a balanced news diet. These are all of the articles I think are about this story. I do not select or sort articles based on any opinions or perceived biases, and neither I nor my creator advocate for or against any of these sources or articles. It is your responsibility to determine what is factually correct.
The sanctions paradox, With Russia's energy exports denominated in USD and their state budget in RUB help me understand how sanctions are really going to have any effect on their government reddit.
I do a bit of forex trading in my spare time as a hobby and after trying to figure out have we hit the bottom on the rouble yet I was left thinking things can't really get to bad for the Russian state budget and it's really only their citizens that are going to be left feeling the pinch, Just hear me out and fell free to correct my thesis. So anyway Russia typically prices it's oil and gas contracts in USD thanks to the current "petrodollar" standard in energy contracts. The vast majority of their income comes through energy exports and they get paid in USD. They can now get 46 roubles for every dollar of oil sold compared to this time last year as a result of the 36% year on year decline in the value of RUB vs USD which means their many of their obligations and public sector wages also declined 36%. In other words this is going to screw ordinary Russian worker but the declining rouble is going to have little to no effect on the Russian government's ability to balance the books and ironically makes it easier for them to pay pensions/benefits/public sector wages Now the one thing that is going to hurt them in the short term is the decline in oil prices since 40% of their exports are crude oil but Russia has been running a huge trade surplus in recent years and even with sanctions and lower oil prices this continues to be the case presently. Oct 10, 2014
Russia’s trade surplus widened in August as President Vladimir Putin banned food imports from the U.S. and some of its allies. The surplus was $15.8 billion, up 12 percent from a year earlier, the central bank in Moscow said today on its website. The median estimate of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was $16.1 billion. Imports decreased 12 percent to $25.1 billion and exports fell 3.7 percent to $40.9 billion.
Thing is when it comes to a trade war cash is king and Russia seems to have no problem covering it's obligations as regards imports. Compare that to Ukraine on the other hand who's declining currency and increasing trade defect mean it needs foreign aid just to pay for the day to day goods it's importing. In short I cant find any credible economic threat that the west poses to Russia that doesn't come back to bite them in the ass themselves, lower oil prices are going to have a blowback effect on Us shale and Canadian tar sands production of which many require $80 a barrel prices just to be profitable. Anyway I hope you appreciate my analysis, I did this mainly for myself as I opened a short position on the rouble back in March when the central bank was still intervening to support the price but now that it's stopped and the rouble has been allowed to float I'm pretty much going to close my position unless there is something I'm seriously overlooking here. Sources: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/balance-of-tradehttp://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUcharthttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-10/russia-august-trade-surplus-rises-as-imports-decline-on-food-ban.html
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Dollar has worst week in over a year amid political uncertainty
This is an automatic summary, original reduced by 52%.
NEW YORK The U.S. dollar fell on Friday, adding to its worst week since April 2016 against a basket of major currencies, and having surrendered the gains made since Donald Trump was elected U.S. president. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six world currencies, has shed more than 2 percent this week. Uproar over Trump's recent firing of FBI Director James Comey, who was overseeing an investigation into possible links between the president's team and Russia, has pressured the dollar. "The dollar overall, across the board, has been getting beat up this week and a lot of that has to do with the political risk here in DC," said John Doyle, director of markets at Tempus Inc in Washington. The dollar fell 0.3 percent against the yen to 111.14 JPY= and had its first weekly drop in five against the Japanese currency. The dollar fell 3.3 percent against the Brazilian real BRL=. Oil-linked emerging market currencies like the Mexican MXN= and Colombian pesos COP= and the Russian rouble RUB= gained around 1 percent versus the dollar, also boosted by a rise in oil prices.
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I don't normally trade anything on the forex. I like to keep my cash in USD and just take profit in CAD when it spikes to 1.11 CAD to the dollar. I was up late last night and noticed the rouble is taking a huge hit due to the recent developments in Crimea and Ukraine. Usually the media hypes up a situation more than it deserves, but the Russian market took a 7-8% hit, showing that there is real fear to the economic sanctions leveraged by the west. I think that a bet against the ruble (USD.RUB) is a relatively safe one. The current interest rate in Russia is at 7%, which was raised from 5.5%. This should have promoted a stronger currency but may have only slowed down inflation. This is a country that has gone bankrupt and defaulted on its debts. Overall this situation is bringing down global markets, but I can only guess at the scope and spread of the overall damage and fear. The best I can do is keep doing what I am doing in equities and try to profit off of Russia.
When using the information obtained through this site, please note that trading in financial markets, in particular, such as trading binary options or Forex, carries a high level of risk and is not suitable for all investors. With the wrong approach to money management, there is a possibility of losing funds in excess of your initial investment. Thus, you should not risk more funds than you ... EUR/RUB: Aktueller Euro - Russischer Rubel Kurs heute mit Chart, historischen Kursen und Nachrichten. Wechselkurs EUR in RUB. During October the Russian rouble weakened against the US dollar from 77.626 to 79.321. A significant risk premium has already been priced into the rouble. Latest. USD/JPY: Scope for a move to 106.00 and above – UOB ; Natural Gas Futures: Further consolidation in the pipeline; NZD/USD faces further consolidation – UOB; Crude Oil Futures: Further gains stay on the cards; Gold Price Analysis ... The Russian Ruble (or Rouble) is the official currency of the Russian Federation, as well as South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The ruble is subdivided into 100 kopeks (or kopecks, copecks). There is currently no official symbol for the Ruble, though the abbreviation руб. is widely in use, and the country is considering several other possibilities. Economy. The Russian Federation is one of the ... Currency report on the russian ruble featuring real time ruble based exchange rates and cross tick charts versus euro and sterling. Also included is russian news and specialists on ruble trading, forecasting and interbank movements. Get Russian Ruble rates, news, and facts. Also available are Russia Ruble services like cheap money transfers, a RUB currency data, and more. Forex prices are delayed 10 minutes, per exchange rules, and trade times are listed in CST. Note: Hours for a Forex trading day are 16:00 - 15:59 Central Time (CT). Data Updates. For pages showing Intraday views, we use the current session's data, with new price data appear on the page as indicated by a "flash". Stocks: 15 minute delay (Cboe BZX data for U.S. equities is real-time), ET. Volume ...
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